Selecting Sports Handicapping Services

So you are new to sports betting.  Or maybe you have been playing for a while and getting crushed.  Or maybe you have been looking at all the different handicappers and grabbing their free plays or taking the plays game by game where you only pay if they win.  Right?  Everyone that is here falls into one of those categories.  We have received several requests (thought email ad our members survey) for an article o how to evaluate sports handicappers so you can get the right one for you.  And THAT is the key – the right one for YOU.  So let’s take a look at different marketing tactics that handicappers use and a way for you to evaluate the services they offer and how you win with them.

The Single Game Purchase

Many sports handicapping websites will promote buying games individually ... or parlays ... or the games of the night.  Often you will see “Our 20 star game of the day – We are 21 – 2 on these plays” or “Big 10 Game of the Year – we have gone 8 – 0 over the past 8 years.”  You know the lines that are used.  Someone has “information” or a “system” that will produce a sure winner.  And if it doesn’t win, you don’t pay.  Sounds like a good deal, right?  Let’s take a look at the bettor’s emotion when they purchase these plays as well as the handicapper’s view of offering these plays.

If you have a choice between “Get our Plays of the Day” and “ACC LOCK of the Year”, which are you more inclined to purchase?  The play of the day is $25, the lock of the year is $50 (these are real numbers, by the way).  You will take the lock of the year and lay out $50.  Using sound money management, you know you have to bet an amount that will cover the $$ you paid for the play as well as give you $$ in your pocket.  If you want to make $100 on the game, you have to play $165 to win that $100 – remember you paid $55 for the play.  If it wins, you get your money and all is good.  If you lose, you are out $165 – assuming you don’t pay if you don’t win.  So next time, in order to get even – you buy another play that is the “Big 10 game of the Year” (they are 8 – 0 remember?).  Now in order to get even from where you started, you must bet to win $315 ($150 to win for this play and $165 that you lost last time) – all of this to win $100.  Now you are risking $347 to be up $100.  Eventually you will win and pay your $50, but you may have to risk a great amount of money for it.  And remember, your odds of winning are the same whether you play the play of the day or if you play the Lock of the Day.  The difference is the amount you pay when it wins.  Oh yeah, almost forgot … you are highly likely to bet more than usual for these types of play – compounding your losses.

From the handicapper’s perspective, this is simply a way to make money.  The Locks and Plays of the Month and Plays of the Year are all marketing tactics to get you to spend money.  They will find a game that they like in a particular conference or a particular week or a particular month and publish it as such.  You will notice that every day they will have something like these kinds of plays.  Check it out for yourself.  Monitor them.  You will see this pattern.  It is ONLY a marketing tactic.  So if given the choice, the sound money manager will take the lower cost single game play.

Buying Packages

From a sports betting perspective, buying a package is the way to go. Think about it. You can buy a game on the days you want to play and you will PROBABLY buy several different handicappers’ plays.  But when you add it all up, you will spend more money over a calendar year (if your bankroll will allow you to last that long) with the daily plays.  Then there is the decision – do you buy the whole season or by the week or by the month.  This completely depends on your available bankroll.  Remember, to be profitable you MUST cover the cost of the package before you even put a dime on your pocket.  You will have the option to purchase specific league’s season packages (NFL, NBA, College Hoops, College BB, MLB) or a whole sport package (Football, Basketball, Baseball, Hockey) and some sites – like Shark Handicapping – will offer you all sports for a period of time.  You need to look at the return you expect to get (i.e. your betting bankroll in proportion to the cost of the package) as well as how the handicapper has performed.

From the sports handicapper’s perspective, they would like you to buy a package because it increases their cash flow now for future service delivery.  Sound business!  They also offer early bird specials to keep the $$ flowing during slow seasons (i.e. between the NCAA Tourney and football season).  If you have the bankroll, take advantage of them.

Money Management

We cannot stress enough how important money management is when you are betting on sports.  Like any other investment, you do not want all your eggs in one basket – i.e. do not bet the house on one game.  See our article on money management for a deeper discussion as well as our article on scamdicappers to hear a real life story of someone who bet everything – and almost lost his life.

Back to money management and handicappers.  Many sports handicappers will have a unit system.  You have seen them before – we are +1435 units for the year.  The sports monitoring services will rank handicappers by their number of units versus their winning percentage.  How can you have a sub par winning percentage and positive units?  Simple …. LUCK.  Remember, every play has the same probability of winning.  That is why Vegas sets lines and spreads..  There are some lines that are more in your favor than others, but overall the odds are generally the same.

Learn more about Mark Miller as well as his Theory and Style by clicking on the "About the Shark" pages on the left side menu.