The Betting Line in the New NHL

Last time, we discussed the new rules for the NHL and how it affects NHL betting.  this article will look deeper how the new rules change the hockey betting perspective.  Let’s look first at how the oddsmakers have changed the betting lines then look at how that affects Joe Public.

In years past, the oddsmakers used a ½ point line rather effectively to create an advantage over sports bettors.  Here is a line for a game between the Detroit Red Wings and the New Jersey Devils. 

Detroit – ½       -110             6 ½ O

N.J D   + ½      -150             6 ½ U

In this example Detroit must win the game to cover the line, New Jersey meanwhile only had to tie to cover the line.  There are three possible outcomes to this game, which will also explain the odds on New Jersey:

1.       Detroit wins = Detroit covers the line

2.       New Jersey wins = NJ covers the line

3.       The game ends in a tie = NJ covers the line

The Over/Under line also moved in favor of the sportsbooks.  The game could end in a 3 – 3 tie, where the under wins.  Most amateur bettors take the over and the favorite.

The new shootout rule guarantees a winner in every game – thus eliminating the edge the sportsbooks held with the ½ point lines.  Also notice the effect on the O/U:  A 3 – 3 tie is no longer possible so the over wins.  Here is how the new line appears:

Detroit  – 200               7 O

N.J D   + 150                7 U

Because we don’t see the half point line (you can still find it but don’t bother) the money line has been dramatically impacted making it more expensive to buy the favorite, but opening up the opportunities to hit plus money line games by taking the dog.  Notice the over/under is set at 7 versus 6 ½.  In the “old” NHL, a 7 point line was infrequent as the teams would need 8 goals to cover the over.  And remember the under winning a 3 – 3 tie?  Now a 3 – 3 tie in regulation is guaranteed to end up 4 – 3, making a 7 O/U a push for the books.  Advantage sports bettor.  The books will adjust as time goes on, but it has been a GREAT season thus far!

Joe Public Cashes in?

Now, how this made playing hockey better for the public?   First, the money line has made the public more selective in betting money line games where they have pay 200 to win 100.  The rule changes to speed up the game, focus on offense and eliminate the “goons” have made teams go on more streaks than in the past.  It is easier to predict a team that is on a streak because those streaks are lasting longer than before.

Second, it has made the Over/Under easier to play.  With wide open offenses ruling the ice, a 7 or 8 or 9 point game is not too far out of reach and the 1, 2 or 4 point games are less frequent.  Look at Anaheim’s late season scoring spree for a great example.  Look at the totals for this season and you will find most games at 6 to 6 ½.  The books are trying to figure it out as well.  ADVANTAGE – sports bettor.

In all the “New NHL” has been a good change for Hockey and the hockey betting public.  More exciting games and better advantages over the books:  a winning combination.  Welcome back NHL!!!