The New NHL – Better Game, Bettor Odds
By Mark "The Shark" Miller
www.sharkhandicapping.com
After a full season without hockey – thanks to the owner lockout - the NHL is back on the ice with a cool 3.5% increase in attendance. Who said the fans would not come back? I like to refer to it as the “New NHL” that is not only aligned to be financially successful for the teams, but one that has also made several key rule changes that directly affect the betting public. The changes are great for the game of hockey and have created very profitable opportunities for the smart sports bettor. Let’s look at the rule changes that improved the game and put more people in the seats (Baseball, you may want to take notice):
1. A new standard of enforcement for existing rules – Zero tolerance for hooking, holding, tripping, slashing, cross checking and interference. Players who use their stick or free hand to slow any opposing player will be penalized.
2. Tie games are decided by a shootout – More excitement for fans and players alike. There are a couple of downsides, but overall a good choice.
3. The two-line pass is legal. The red line at center ice remains, but used for icing calls only. A pass from the defensive zone all the way to the opposing blue line is legal – opening up the game. Finally the NHL uses the standard of every other major hockey league! Could automatic icing be next?
4. Goaltender gear is smaller. Goaltender leg pads, blockers, catching gloves and jerseys are all cut down in size.
5. Goaltenders cannot handle the puck behind the goal line, except in a restricted area. You have seen the trapezoid lines behind the net, and now you know why. This plays in the favor of fore checking for the offensive team, creating more scoring opportunities.
6. Smaller neutral zone, expanded attack zone The blue lines move closer together, reducing the size of the neutral zone from 54 to 50 feet. The goal line is pushed two feet closer to the end of the rink. This creates an additional 6 feet of space between the blue line and the end line. That is HUGE for increasing offensive play and fore checking.
7. The “tag-up” offside rule is reinstated. Why blow the whistle automatically, just because a player is offside in the opponent’s zone? The new rule gives them a chance to “tag up” at the blue line and resume the attack – increasing flow and speed of the game.
8. More fines and suspensions for fighters. Steep fines and suspensions for fighting in the last 5 minutes of the game helps to keep coaches and players focused on moving the puck in the waning moments of the game.
The results have been a much faster game with more scoring. In prior years a 4 – 2 lead may have been safe and allowed a team to sit back on defense. No more. Today some would argue that a 4 – 1 lead is the worst lead in hockey. If you paid attention to the rule changes you would notice a consistent theme – attack and offense is king. Scoring averages across the league are up more then one goal a game, and attendance is up 3 ½ percent. Speed, scoring, and attendance are related as the fans have embraced the “New NHL”.
The Betting Line in the New NHL
That’s nice Mark, but how does this change the sports betting perspective? Let’s look first at how the oddsmakers have changed the betting lines then look at how that affects Joe Public.
In years past, the oddsmakers used a ½ point line rather effectively to create an advantage over sports bettors. Here is a line for a game between the Detroit Red Wings and the New Jersey Devils.
Detroit – ½ -110 6 ½ O
N.J D + ½ -150 6 ½ U
In this example Detroit must win the game to cover the line, New Jersey meanwhile only had to tie to cover the line. There are three possible outcomes to this game, which will also explain the odds on New Jersey:
1. Detroit wins = Detroit covers the line
2. New Jersey wins = NJ covers the line
3. The game ends in a tie = NJ covers the line
The Over/Under line also moved in favor of the sportsbooks. The game could end in a 3 – 3 tie, where the under wins. Most amateur bettors take the over and the favorite.
The new shootout rule guarantees a winner in every game – thus eliminating the edge the sportsbooks held with the ½ point lines. Also notice the effect on the O/U: A 3 – 3 tie is no longer possible so the over wins. Here is how the new line appears:
Detroit – 200 7 O
N.J D + 150 7 U
Because we don’t see the half point line (you can still find it but don’t bother) the money line has been dramatically impacted making it more expensive to buy the favorite, but opening up the opportunities to hit plus money line games by taking the dog. Notice the over/under is set at 7 versus 6 ½. In the “old” NHL, a 7 point line was infrequent as the teams would need 8 goals to cover the over. And remember the under winning a 3 – 3 tie? Now a 3 – 3 tie in regulation is guaranteed to end up 4 – 3, making a 7 O/U a push for the books. Advantage sports bettor. The books will adjust as time goes on, but it has been a GREAT season thus far!
Joe Public Cashes in?
Now, how this made playing hockey better for the public? First, the money line has made the public more selective in betting money line games where they have pay 200 to win 100. The rule changes to speed up the game, focus on offense and eliminate the “goons” have made teams go on more streaks than in the past. It is easier to predict a team that is on a streak because those streaks are lasting longer than before.
Second, it has made the Over/Under easier to play. With wide open offenses ruling the ice, a 7 or 8 or 9 point game is not too far out of reach and the 1, 2 or 4 point games are less frequent. Look at Anaheim’s late season scoring spree for a great example. Look at the totals for this season and you will find most games at 6 to 6 ½. The books are trying to figure it out as well. ADVANTAGE – sports bettor.
In all the “New NHL” has been a good change for Hockey and the betting public. More exciting games and better advantages over the books: a winning combination. Welcome back NHL!!!