Sports Betting for Profit

Football season is over.  The colleges have played the bowl games and the hype of the Super Bowl is past.  Now what do you do as a sports bettor?  Get ready to move into the “other” season – the “No Football” season.   The great thing about football, from a causal bettor’s perspective, is that you only have three days of large boards, giving plenty of time for preparation and research through news, watching line movement, statistical analysis, etc.  Get into basketball, college basketball, hockey and baseball and you will find there is little time to prepare between games.  Football is no doubt the king of sports betting, but the “other season” provides an amazing opportunity for profit.

Change Your Mindset

Many people get into sports betting to make a quick buck.  You have undoubtedly heard of the guy who won $12,000 last week laying it all on the line.  What you may not hear about is the person that lost his mortgage payment for the next 6 months.  Would you invest your hard earned money that way for your retirement?  For your kids education?  For your family trip?  You see the point.

Sports betting can be very similar to stock market or commodity investing.  You play it for the long run and never put your entire bankroll on the line for any one play.  At the end of the year, tally the wins and losses if you like, but more importantly, look at your bankroll and decide what you will do for the coming year.  The goal is to find and use a system that produces a 60% win percentage for the year... not for the day, the week or the month … but for the year.  It is a simple concept and requires great discipline.

For the casual bettor, this is a drastic change.  Through our service at Shark Handicapping, we have talked to several people that want to bet $100 per game with a $500 total bankroll.  They had been with a service and lost money.  Our first response is “Well, I can tell you why you are losing money.  And it is not the service.”

The Sports Betting Trap

The $100 player with a $500 bankroll is sure to at least lose the entire $500 and likely to lose much more than that.  Here is why – human emotion.  The player starts out betting a buck ($100) a game – more than 20% of his entire bankroll (the juice, remember?).  He has a good weekend, has bet 4 games and has withdrawn some money for the Monday night party.  The next week comes and it is so–so, going just under .500, but his bankroll is down because of the juice.  “No worries, I’ll get it back.”  Knowing he has to make up the juice, he increases his bet for the next week and bets a big amount on the SURE thing.  The oddsmakers get the best of him.  Now the bankroll is gone.  He reloads the account (now he is chasing his loses), has a winning weekend and takes some money out to replenish the credit card.  This cycle continues – he wins some, he loses some but he always winds up paying the oddsmakers in the end AND depletes his hard earned money in the process. 

Avoid the Trap – Discipline

The only way to avoid the trap is to have a system in place that takes a long term approach to winning at sports betting – just as in any other type of investing.  In the same scenario as above the player will not be forced to chase anything because he was smart with his money.  Here is a very simple system to keep your head above water and profitable year after year:

1.      Only play up to 5% of your bankroll on any one play

2.      Flat bet all plays – Bet the same amount on the Super Bowl as you do on the season opener.

3.      BANK your winnings.  You will need funds to ride a losing streak and it is fun to watch your winning streaks add to the $$$.

4.      Stay disciplined – Let your buddy bet $5,000 on the Orange Bowl.  Stick to your $50 and your system.  He may win quick, but you will win more.

Let’s look at a quick example of the approach in action.  Here is Jim.  He is your average person that wants to have some fun in sports betting and has $500 to get started.  Now, let’s take our record at Shark Handicapping and apply it to Jim.  Over the past 52 weeks, we have 419 wins, 277 losses and 16 ties – just over a 60% average.  A push is a push, so we will not count them here.  Jim has stuck with our system and bet only $25 per game for every game.  At the end of the year, his numbers would look like this:

            Starting Bankroll:        $500

            Gross Winnings:          $10,475           ($25 X 419 wins)

            Gross Losses:             $7,617             ($27.50 X 277 losses)

            Net Profit:                  $2,858

            Ending Bankroll:       $3,358

At the end of the year, Jim can take out $2,358, leave $1,000 in the betting account and now become a $50 player for the next year.  Should the system hold, Jim would have twice as much money at the end of year two and would be THEN be set up to play $100 a game at the end of year THREE.

Now tell me that a $25.00 play does not add up to a lot of money.  The reason I have spent time talking about the annual approach and put examples in this article is because we head into the time of the year that we see large boards on a daily basis and we will be playing more games on a daily basis. Building the bankroll, following the system, and being disciplined are crucial right now.

More Games More Discipline

Moving into full swing Basketball, Hockey, Football, Baseball, NASCAR, Boxing and Golf open up opportunities as we see large boards on a daily basis.  Because of the sheer number of games we will see more streaks – winning streaks and losing streaks.  It is common to run off 10 straight wins and follow up with 5 straight losses this time of the year.  As an example look at a Monday or Tuesday’s board, we have 13 NHL games, 12 NBA games, and 30 NCAA BB games. That’s 55 games in one day!  And you think football is the handicapper’s busiest time of the year?  THIS is the time of year that requires the most discipline on your bet amount and bankroll management.  There are many more opportunities to make money but it can also KILL your bankroll if you are not careful.  Stay disciplined, follow the system and look for the opportunities to strike. 

If you’re looking for the quick score or to make a lot of money without a solid plan, you’re going to end up chasing the dime or spending money like you do when you gamble in Vegas.  If that works for you, have fun... enjoy the entertainment value.  If you are looking to make money from sports betting, take a long term approach and look at it as an investment or a business.  Evaluate the 1, 3 and 5 year returns.  And finally, never, never, never put up more than you can afford.  That is a sure source for disaster.