How the AFC West Will be Won

By Justin Shaw

The AFC West is always one of the toughest divisions in the NFL.  Three of the four teams in the West have made a Super Bowl appearance in the past decade or so and it is always a very difficult division to win for any of the four teams.

Now I know that you’re supposed to put your best foot forward, but I’m gonna go the other way with this one.  I’m going to talk about the Oakland Raiders first.  Why, because this will be short and sweet.  I really tried to find something positive to say about the Silver and Black, but let’s call a spade a spade: they are awful.  Not only might they be the worst and most poorly run franchise in the NFL, they may be the worst team in professional sports.  They haven’t won more than five games in a season since 2002, and they will not win more than five this season.  It’s a simple formula: Al Davis + no quarterback + no defense = 4-12 season.

Now that that mess is out of the way, let’s get down to business.  Third in the division I am picking the San Diego Chargers.  San Diego has a young, exciting team, but it might be too young and inexperienced of a team to make the playoffs.  Drew Brees leaving is going to hurt the team for at least one season.  Philip Rivers is a great young talent, but for now all he has is the P word: Potential.  This will be his first full season behind the helm for the Chargers and I don’t think he is ready to take them to the playoffs.  But what about LaDainian Tomlinson?  He is undoubtedly electric and possibly the best running back in the NFL. But without an effective passing attack from Rivers he will be looking at eight and nine man fronts all season until Rivers can prove he can beat a team by himself.  The Chargers have an outside chance for a Wild-Card birth, but don’t be expecting them to be better than a 10-6 team. 

So it comes down to the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs.  This is a very close call and could very well come down to the last weekend of the season to be decided.  I’m going to take the Broncos with a 12-4 record edging out the Chiefs with an 11-5 record. 

The Chiefs have an outstanding offense as they always do and Dante Hall is always a long distance threat on punts and kick-offs, but to win in the NFL a team must play defense.  The Chiefs added some nice role players on defense, but they aren’t getting any younger and there isn’t too much speed besides Derrick Johnson at linebacker.  The Chiefs have not been successful against the run in the past few years and the Chargers and Broncos have two of the best running games in the league.  Herm Edwards is going to try his best to rectify the situation but there are too many holes to fill in the defense and they never seem to have any chemistry and seem awkward at times.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chiefs won the division, but I still think they are a few players away.  Look for them to be a legit Wild-Card team and to be 11-5 and look for four of their loses to be road loses.

So by a process of elimination, your 2006 AFC West Champions are the Denver Broncos.  Although they lost Mike Anderson and Trevor Price, the Broncos could be even better this year than they were in 2005.  The Broncos had a tremendous NFL Draft in 2006 in which they essentially stole Javon Walker from the Green Bay Packers and drafted some solid players.  Elvis Dumervil, a defensive end from Louisville, will be a fine replacement for Trevor Pryce and QB Jay Cutler might be the best player from this draft class five years from now.  The Broncos still have one of the best defenses in the league and the secondary is going to get better with experience.  Look for the Broncos to go 12-4 this year behind another solid campaign from Jake Plummer.  Mike Shanahan has been around the block a few times and this still could be his best coaching job yet with all the young talent he will have to work with.  Tatum Bell will have a breakout season and continue the tradition of 1,000-yard Bronco rushers.  The Broncos could be as dangerous in the playoffs as they were last year and if they have home field advantage they could be a legit Super Bowl contender.