2007 NFL Predictions - NFC North
Yes, the NFC North represented the NFC in the Super Bowl last year but we do not expect to see that again this year. This may one of the toughest divisions to handicap as each team brings something special to the table and then something not so special. While the Chicago Bears have an inside track to winning the division we could see plenty of stumbles along the way.
Standings Predictions:
Chicago 10-6
Detroit 9-7
Green Bay 7-9
Minnesota 6-8
Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears drew a pretty difficult non division schedule and a tough non conference schedule to go along with their NFC play. The Bears open their season in San Diego and will also play Dallas, Philadelphia, Seattle, New Orleans and Denver. It is not all bad news for the Bears as they will also play Washington, Oakland, NY Giants and Kansas City outside of their division. The Bears will need to take care business in their division to control their destiny and not allow the non divisional games interrupt their season. The problem for the Bears here is unlike last year there are a couple division teams that can come up and bite them at any time. I don’t think anyone is sold on Rex Grossman yet and he is still as inconsistent as they come, when everyone asks who is going to show up today the “good Rex” and a “bad Rex” the Chicago offense will continues to struggle. Still, they have great special teams play and the Chicago Bears are the team to beat in the division. Odds to the NFC Championship 9 – 2, Over/Under 10 regular season wins, Odds to win the NFC North Division 2 - 7.
Detroit Lions
No, I Have not lost my mind and while it might seem far fetch to you that the Lions could finish second in the division they will have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season. Normally teams can stay in games with a solid defense but the Lions offense will keep them in just about every game this year. While they may lose high scoring close games, a bounce here or break here will determine if the Lions finish 2nd or 4th. The Lions draw a slightly easier schedule then the Bears and will have to contend with Oakland, Denver, San Diego and Kansas City. But the Lions will get Denver, the NY Giants and Dallas at home. With Mike Martz running the offense and the receiving core and running backs available to him this team will score points. Fantasy owners could find Kitna at the top of the list in fantasy leagues around the country. Once again the defense will be an unknown and will be inconsistent just like last year. Some games the Lions played standout defense and other games they flat out looked awful. Most “experts” believe Detroit will be lucky to go 8 – 8 but we have them one game better. No one thought the Detroit Tigers would get to the World Series last year, it could happen. Odds to the NFC Championship 45 – 1, Over/Under 6 ½ regular season wins, Odds to win the NFC North Division 4 – 1.
Green Bay Packers
This will be the most under rated defense walking into the season. It won’t take long for the public and oddsmakers to catch up to this fact. Opposite of the Lions the defense will keep the Packers in games. The unknown once again is the offensive unit and potential suffering at the running back position. Special teams play will need to improve. The Packers open up a tough three game schedule by hosting the Philadelphia Eagles and then travel to New York to take on the Giants and then back home to host San Diego. The Packer also end the season by traveling to St. Louis where they will have to play on the carpet which could create match-up issues, then to Chicago before hosting the Lions at home to close out the season. To many unknowns on the offensive side to believe they will finish higher then 3rd in the division. With a tough opening it will be a challenge to come out 4 – 4 at the half way point as they could drop 3 of their first 4 games. Odds to the NFC Championship 16 – 1, Over/Under 7 ½ regular season wins, Odds to win the NFC North Division 5 - 1.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have the opportunity to surprise some folks around the league and they are getting some notice, however, I believe the Vikings will end up a disappointing season. The Vikings could have some real problems on the offensive side of the ball and unless they get a huge jump in the expected play at the QB position they will be in for a long year. The Vikings also did very little to improve in the off season and once again teams will have a field day passing against a weak secondary. While there is potential for a strong running game most teams will stack up the line and dare them to throw over the top. The Vikings opening the season with the softest schedule of all the teams within the division but that still won’t get them over the top as they play Chicago, Dallas, Philadelphia and San Diego starting in week 6 and finish the season at Denver. Odds to the NFC Championship 16 – 1, Over/Under 7 ½ regular season wins, Odds to win the NFC Division 11 - 2
Some interesting numbers to consider here in futures play; like the fact that the oddsmakers have set Chicago’s win total at 10. That looks too easy and looks more like a trap to me. Secondly they post Detroit at 4 – 1 to win their division and the Packers at 5 ½ - 1 yet the win total for Detroit is 6 ½ and the Packers at 7 ½. That tells me an adjustment was made to the win total based on public perception of both the Packers and the Lions. While there are no huge value on the table we feel the best futures play for this division is on the Detroit Lions to surpass 6 ½ wins.