Suns have their work cut out

By Dan Mohrmann

Phoenix might be in trouble if the season opener will be any indication of how the Western Conference Finals will go.  Of course, they’re sitting pretty if the last two meetings between Dallas and Phoenix are any indication of the series.

The Mavericks and Suns spilt the season series 2-2 this season, showing that the match-up could be a wild one. The two high-powered offenses have put out high scoring efforts every game, and have each hit the 100-point mark in every game, except when Phoenix only mustered 96 points in a loss to Dallas on December 14.

The Mavericks of the West

Dirk Nowitzki has been the rock for the Mavs, putting up 29.5 points a game against the Suns this season. Along with over 10 rebounds a game, he is averaging a double-double against Phoenix this season, something that may play a factor in the outcome of the series. The Suns will have to slow down Nowitzki to have any chance at winning this series.

Looking at momentum as a factor when trying to determine a winner, the Mavs just came off an energizing seven game series against the defending world champions. They were finally able to put away the San Antonio Spurs in overtime of game seven to put them in the Western Conference Finals. The Mavs had never beaten the Spurs in the playoffs, which made the victory that much more special.

The Suns in the West

The Suns have an advantage of their own in the form of league MVP Steve Nash. Nash averaged 20 points each time the Suns faced off against the Mavs, but the key stat is assists. In the two games where the Suns won, Nash shared the ball much more than he did the first two meetings. When Nash puts up at least 10 assists against the Mavs, the Suns are victorious.

The Suns beat the Clippers. A team that has been hiding in the basement of the NBA for years and only climbed out this season. It took the Suns seven games to get rid of the NBA’s joke for the last few decades. While the Mavs won an energizing series against the Spurs, the Suns won an agonizing series against the Clippers.

Series Prediction

All these stats could be thrown out the window when the series starts. It all comes down to who can win four games first. Home court advantage is a wash since each team won a home and away game against each other this season.

This is why the Mavs will have the advantage going into the series. Nothing puts more confidence in a team like trouncing the defending world champs, on their own floor mind you. Hanging tough to beat the Clippers will not do wonders for the confidence of the Suns. Nash is going to have a tough time putting up MVP numbers against his former squad and Shawn Marion will find out that Nowitzki and others are a lot harder to penetrate than Chris Kayman and Elton Brand.

While the Suns will not get swept by the Mavs, they really do not have much of a chance at beating them. In order for that to happen, they will have to bring their “A” game every night and even then, Dallas still needs to do a lot to lose this series.