Can the Eastern Conference Champs take the Heat?

By Justin Shaw

The 2006 Eastern Conference Finals may bring some déjà vu to NBA fans since these two teams battled in a hard fought series last year, with the Pistons winning in seven.  However, as the Pistons roster and starting five has stayed the same, the Heat have a whole new look than they did last year. 

The Heat have built around one of the most potent one-two combos in the league in Shaquille O’Neal and Dwayne Wade.  They brought in Antoine Walker and James Posey to provide an outside threat to take the pressure off of O’Neal in the paint and to allow Dwayne Wade to penetrate and kick it out for the three ball.  They also have veteran leadership off the bench with Gary Payton and Alonso Mourning.  Add Jason Williams and the emergent Udonis Haslem into the starting five and you’ve got a powerhouse of a team rolling in the Palace looking for revenge. 

The betting odds suggest that the stalwart Pistons will make quick work of the new-look Heat in five or six games since the Pistons are –280 favorites.  However, the +230 price is a very good value to take the Heat in this series. 

With all due respect to the two-time defending Eastern Conference Champs, I’m going to have to take the Heat this year.  While the Pistons won the season series 3-1, it doesn’t mean a thing anymore.  The slate is clean and it looks like the Heat are finally playing to their potential, while the Pistons have struggled in these 2006 playoffs with mediocre teams. 

Although they beat the eighth-seeded Milwaukee Bucks in five games, they showed some vulnerability in doing so.  Michael Redd repeatedly torched them from outside and had he gotten some help from his teammates it could’ve been a much more interesting series.

While the Pistons were taking care of the Bucks, the Heat were dealing with a young, feisty Chicago Bulls team.  Although the series went six games, the Heat were in no serious danger as they won all three home games.  After the Bulls tied the series in games three and four, the Heat flexed their collective muscle and crushed the Baby Bulls by 14 and 17 in games five and six to win the series. 

The second round really showed the Pistons’ weaknesses as they were taken to the brink of elimination by the upstart Cleveland Cavaliers.  LeBron James averaged over 30 points per game in the series and showed how easy it can be to penetrate and score or kick it out to the perimeter against the Pistons.  If LeBron can carve up the defense with no help, then I would have to think that D-Wade could do the same; only he has plenty of help. 

The Heat clearly dominated the “hottest team in the playoffs” in the New Jersey Nets after dropping game one.  The Heat played to their potential in the Nets series and it showed.  Miami is peaking at the right time and Detroit looks like a tired, almost uninterested team until they are forced to play.  If the Pistons don’t bring it to the arena every night in this series they will have no chance to make a third straight trip to the Finals. 

I believe that the Heat will be able to control the pace in this series and play the way they want to.  The tempo that favors them is setting up their offense and keeping Detroit out of transition and making players like Ben and Rasheed Wallace prove that they can score inside consistently. 

The X-factor in this series is going to be the Heat’s inside-outside play and three-point shooting ability.  Everybody knows exactly what the Pistons will try to do on the offensive end, but the real battle will occur when the Heat have the ball.  How will they defend Shaq?  Will the Heat be able to make enough three point shots to keep the middle open for O’Neal’s post play and Wade’s driving ability to the basket?  Shaq appears to be very ready for this series and will dominate in the paint the way he did in the Lakers’ three-peat run.  This coupled with Wade getting to the bucket and free throw line a lot and some good outside shooting will result in a Heat win. 

Another advantage that the Heat have in this series is the coaching match up.  Pat Riley has been there so many times before and has been proven successful; while Flip Saunders is the deepest he’s ever been in the playoffs in his career.  Saunders was badly out-coached throughout the Cavs series and showed that he is unable to make adjustments that will lead the Pistons to a championship. 

As for what to bet in individual games in this series, there really aren’t many trends to follow.  The Heat have covered the spread in five of their last seven games, including their last four.  The Pistons have gone the other way, failing to cover the spread in five of their last six games.  The Heat’s last four games have gone over in points and the Pistons last five have gone under.  The Pistons haven’t scored over 100 points in their last six games, while the Heat have scored over 100 in their last four games and in seven of the 11 games in these playoffs. 

The equation is simple in my mind; a healthy and determined Shaq, who scored 28 points per game against the Pistons in the regular season, will be enough for the Heat to take the series in six games.  As if he needed any more motivation, let’s not forget that the Pistons have ended the big man’s quest for a title both of the last two seasons.